COST

What COST’s Earnings Track Record Says About Price Behavior

Over the last eight reported quarters, Costco Wholesale (COST) has beaten the consensus six times and missed twice, for a 75% beat rate. The average earnings surprise across that period is just 0.4%, meaning reported results have generally landed very close to the published estimate. Despite that tight accuracy, the average five-day price move in the sessions after earnings is -1.51%, categorized as a “down” drift. Recent quarters illustrate the same pattern: on 2025-09-25, COST beat by 1.2% but the stock fell -2.9% the next day and -2.81% over the following five sessions; on 2025-12-11, a 1.6% beat produced a 0% next-day move but a -3.04% five-day drift; on 2026-03-05, a 0.7% beat rallied the stock 1.58% the next day and 2.11% over five days; and on 2026-05-28, a -1.4% miss drove a -3.91% next-day drop and -2.3% over the next five sessions. The message is that the post-earnings direction is not purely a beat/miss equation, and the five-day follow-through has leaned lower more often than not.

Options-Flow Dynamics Into the 2026-09-24 Report

COST’s next scheduled earnings release is after the close on 2026-09-24, with a consensus EPS estimate of $6.51. Because the report lands after the bell, the directional reaction will show up in the 2026-09-25 session. Implied volatility typically rises into the event as traders price the binary gap risk, and options flow tends to concentrate in the nearest weekly expiration. With the historical average earnings surprise at only 0.4%, the options market is unlikely to be pricing in a large deviation from the $6.51 number; instead, it is pricing the risk of a small miss or beat and the repricing that follows. Watch the at-the-money straddle or strangle premium relative to the stock’s historical next-day moves, which have ranged from -3.91% to +1.58%. Also watch whether put or call buying dominates order flow, because the -1.51% average five-day drift can create demand for downside protection that lifts implied volatility on puts even when the headline beat rate is high.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

A disciplined approach starts with the $6.51 consensus EPS estimate and the 0.4% historical average surprise. A reported result that deviates by significantly more than that average is the kind of event that historically produces the largest next-day gaps, such as the -3.91% move on 2026-05-28 after a -1.4% miss. Traders should also measure the opening gap against the -1.51% average five-day drift: even bullish openings have sometimes given way to negative follow-through, while the May 2026 miss added downside on top of an already down-tilted drift. From a technical standpoint, COST is trading at $953.2069, just below the 50-day EMA of $958.00, with an RSI of 51.9, suggesting neutral momentum within the Consumer Defensive / Discount Stores sector heading into the event. Combining the options-flow picture, the implied-move pricing, and these technical levels gives a clearer view of how the market has positioned itself for the release.

For a deeper perspective on analyst revisions, institutional positioning, and rating changes, look at the full institutional verdict for COST.